Geonet says there is a 98 per cent chance of an aftershock of 6 to 6.9 magnitude in the next year. In its latest update on the November 14 Kaikoura earthquake, which was 7.8 in magnitude, Geonet Said that while it can't predict earthquakes, it could provide forecasts of future aftershocks based on probabilities and possible scenarios. The most likely scenario was that aftershocks wouLd continue to decrease in frequency over the next year and no aftershocks of magnitude 7 or larger would occur. Felt aftershocks (those over magnitude 5) would occur in the area from North Canterbury to Cape Palliser/Wellington. It was very likely (98 per cent) that within the next year, there would be at least one aftershock of magnitude 6 to 6.9 in the next year, regardless of there being a larger (magnitude 7.0+) earthquake. There was a 54 per cent chance of a quake of that size occurring within the next month. Most aftershocks of the Kaikoura earthquake were occurring throughout a broad area from North